Ready or Not, Here They Come

Ready or Not, Here They Come is a report from the California Postsecondary Education Commission (CPEC) (by Stacy Wilson, Ryan Fuller, and Mallory Angeli) that projects community college enrollment demands for the next 10 years (2009-2019).

Click here for the entire report: Ready or Not Here They Come

Brief from the report:
“Today, California is confronting unprecedented economic and fiscal challenges, and the state’s Master Plan commitment of educational opportunity is being tested again. In this report, CPEC estimates that the state should prepare for 222,000 additional community college students by 2019. Community colleges serve over 2 million students annually. Beginning in fall 2016, the system will be asked for the first time to serve more than 2 million students each fall term. Without adequate enrollment growth funding, as many as 400,000 prospective students might be denied access to community college education over the next two years. CPEC conducts policy research and analysis to support long-range planning and student success”


Increase in Demand:

*By 2019, community colleges should expect and prepare for 222,345 additional students above the fall 2008 peak enrollment level

*75% of community colleges are already facing capacity pressures by serving more than the recommended number of full-time equivalent students

*Enrollment is expected to increase by 2% annually, but community colleges expect to see a 8% decline in base appropriation funding, thus being unable to support enrollment growth

Impact of Increased Demand:

*Due to this rise in demand and shortage of enrollment growth funds, community colleges may be unable to serve a total of 400,539 students in the next two years

Why is there an increase in demand?

*Residents turn to community colleges for career training due to job loss in the state (and there will be a gradual California job recovery that will foster enrollment growth in occupational training)

*UC and CSUs are increasing fees, furloughing faculty, and limiting enrollment, causing students to enroll in community colleges before transferring to 4 year institutions

Community Colleges Encouraged To Expand Capacity Alternatively By:

*Expand year-round operations and evening and weekend courses

*Increase use of regional educational centers and joint facilities, especially with local high schools

*Expand distributed learning opportunities that allow students to choose learning environments that are less dependent on physical space and location (i.e. Internet/computer-mediated technology)

*Support productive learning environments that enable students to become proficient learners so they can realize educational goals/aspirations more rapidly


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